JANUARY 2024 – ISSUE 19
2024 – What to Predict?
AUTHOR: Platypus Asset Management
In January 2023 we published market forecasts for calendar year 2023. How accurate were the forecasts? Well not very and again we are reminded of the quote from Niels Bohr, the Danish Noble Laureate in Physics and a father of the atomic bomb.
“Prediction is very difficult, especially if it is about the future’’.
Whilst forecasting efforts have led to a great deal of introspection at The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), including a paper entitled ‘What Explains Recent Inflation Forecast Errors’, the RBA concedes
‘Model-based forecasts underestimated inflation and upward adjustments based on other information were incorporated into the forecasts.’
The RBA ‘Statement on Monetary Policy – November 2023’ further states
‘Headline inflation and the unemployment rate have evolved broadly as expected a year ago. But underlying inflation has been higher than anticipated, as high services inflation has persisted in an environment of strong domestic cost pressures and still-robust levels of aggregate demand.’
Unsurprisingly forecasting remains difficult for all, and yet, particularly as regards monetary policy and in setting the official cash rate, the forecast of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remains so important.
However, it is so difficult to do accurately.
At Platypus we understand how difficult forecasting is, so we don’t do it.
Nonetheless, at Platypus we need to look – and do look – at what consensus is forecasting – at the macro level for the global economy and the Australian economy. We also look at consensus forecasts at the micro level for the individual companies that we invest in, have invested in, and have on our radar screen to potentially invest in.
We need to know what the market is forecasting; this gives us a solid foundation to make judgements and decisions about the future. The consensus is the starting point, our benchmark from which we anchor our decisions.
We are reminded of the quote of Ian Wilson – a former GE executive that we quoted in a similar article to this in January 2023
‘All your knowledge is about the past and all your decisions are about the future’.
That said, here are the consensus – not Platypus – forecasts for 30/12/2024.
*As at December 5th 2023
1. Barrenjoey Research, Macrobond, Bloomberg
2. Barrenjoey Research, Macrobond, Bloomberg
3. Barrenjoey Research, Macrobond, Bloomberg
4. Barrenjoey Research, Macrobond, Bloomberg
5. Visible Alpha
6. Visible Alpha
7. Visible Alpha
8. Barrenjoey Research, Macrobond, Bloomberg
9. Barrenjoey Research, Macrobond, Bloomberg
10. Reserve Bank of Australia SMP November 2023
14. Visible Alpha Consensus
15. Visible Alpha Consensus
16. Visible Alpha Consensus
18. Reserve Bank of Australia SMP November 2023
Disclaimer: Certain statements in this document may constitute forward-looking statements or statements about future matters (including forecast fifinancial information) that are based upon information known and assumptions made as of the date of this presentation. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may have a material effect on future business. Actual results may differ materially from any future results or performance expressed, predicted or implied by these statements. As such, undue reliance should not be placed on any forward looking statements. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. Nothing contained in this document nor any information made available to investors or potential investors is, or shall be relied upon as, a promise, representation, warranty or guarantee, whether as to the past, present or future state by AUFM, Platypus or any other person (including any director, offificer or any related body corporate of AUFM or Australian Unity Group), except as required by law.